Evvest Markets Outlook 2025: A Look Towards the Future

Contrasting dynamics between the United States and Europe 🌍 Global economic outlook 📊 In 2024, the US economy demonstrated remarkable resilience

A contrasting dynamic between the United States and Europe 🌍

Global Economic Outlook 📊

In 2024, the US economy demonstrated remarkable resilience , driven by robust consumer spending and controlled inflation. This stability reassured central banks , fostering a climate of measured optimism in the markets.

Conversely, Europe is going through a more turbulent period: political instability, weak economic performance, and employment pressures. These trends are expected to continue in 2025, although markets have already largely priced in these scenarios .

Focus on US stocks 🇺🇸

US stocks remain the top favorites, thanks to technology and artificial intelligence . However, caution is advised: some star companies could become "comets," spectacular but ephemeral.

Also worth watching: the Trump effect . A more aggressive trade policy could reignite inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

Focus on European actions 🇪🇺

We are revising our exposure to European equities : from underweight to neutral . Why?

• The valuations are more attractive in relative terms.

• The ECB should continue a gradual reduction of rates .

• The bad economic news seems to have already been priced in.

This opens up interesting windows of opportunity for investors looking for entry points.

Emerging markets: a potential to rediscover 🌏

Emerging markets have not yet recovered their pre -COVID-19 crisis valuation levels .

Two catalysts could revive their attractiveness:

• Stimulus plans in China

• A weaker dollar facilitates capital flows into these markets

But be warned: selectivity is key . Not all countries and sectors have the same potential.

Bonds and alternative asset classes 🏦

US Bonds 📉

US government bonds could suffer if inflation rises again . This would lead to increased volatility in long-term interest rates.

European bonds 🇪🇺

In Europe, it is not so much inflation as political instability that threatens sovereign bonds. French OATs could be particularly exposed.

Investment grade credit 💼

The investment-grade credit segment remains attractive. It offers competitive returns with a moderate level of risk .

Bitcoin: Caution advised 🪙

Bitcoin continues its rollercoaster ride . It can be considered for highly dynamic investors, but with a limited allocation . At Evvest, we advise approaching it with a strict management strategy .

Conclusion: Diversification and selectivity above all 🧭

In summary:

• The United States still offers good prospects, but high valuations encourage caution .

• Europe , although less dynamic, offers attractive valuations and could deliver a positive surprise.

• Emerging markets are still undervalued and deserve measured exposure .

• Quality credit provides a useful defensive foundation.

In this uncertain environment, diversification is more essential than ever. Integrating alternative strategies (e.g., Market Neutral) can strengthen portfolio resilience in the face of market volatility.

At Evvest , we believe that a selective, agile and balanced approach will allow you to take advantage of opportunities while protecting your capital in 2025.