Should Europe fear a Trumpapocalypse?

Key takeaways: What really matters: For 84% of surveyed companies, tariffs and trade policy are essential priorities for strengthening cooperation

What American companies fear 🏛️

A recent survey of 58 American companies reveals that 52% of them expect a negative impact from European Union policies if Donald Trump returns to power.

What worries people the most 🧾

For 84% of the companies surveyed, tariffs and trade policy remain the top priorities for maintaining effective economic cooperation between Europe and the United States .

The potential impact on the European economy 📉

If Donald Trump implements his program of tariffs of 60% on Chinese products and 20% on other imports , economists estimate that this could lead to a decline in the GDP of the eurozone of about 1% .

With the European economy currently projected to grow by 1% , such a measure could bring the eurozone back to the brink of recession .

A less dramatic situation than in 2011 💡

It is important to put things into perspective: this 1% contraction of GDP would be significantly more moderate than the 4.5% decline observed during the 2011 sovereign debt crisis. The scenario of a major economic shock therefore seems unlikely at this stage.

Behind the clouds, some sunny spells are possible ☀️

Diversify business opportunities 🌐

Faced with potential trade tensions with the United States, European companies could accelerate their opening to other export markets, particularly in Asia, Africa or Latin America.

High value-added products 🚗

Certain European products, such as German luxury cars , maintain structurally high demand . This stable demand could mitigate the negative effects of increased tariffs.

A monetary opportunity 💱

If Trump's protectionist policies cause inflation in the United States , the Federal Reserve may be forced to maintain high interest rates . This would put downward pressure on the euro , making European exports more competitive .

A new crisis for the eurozone? 🚨

While tariffs could increase borrowing costs for some highly indebted countries , economists agree that this impact would be moderate , amounting to only a few basis points . This is not a systemic risk comparable to that of the 2011 European sovereign debt crisis .

Market conditions and future outlook 📊

Currently, investors continue to bet on the resilience of the US economy . In contrast, the outlook for Europe is bleaker , due to economic stagnation and political instability in some key countries.

But there are cards to play for Europe 🃏

European stock valuations , often considered modest, could benefit from more flexible monetary policies than in the United States. This would create a favorable environment in the medium term, provided that the right sector opportunities are seized .

Conclusion: Caution, but no panic 🧭

Europe must not underestimate the potential consequences of a second Trump term, particularly on trade. But the risks currently appear contained , with identifiable levers for resilience .

At Evevest , we recommend remaining attentive to geopolitical developments while maintaining a diversified international portfolio . Tactical adjustments can be made depending on how events unfold, but without giving in to alarmism.